Season of Informal Summits

First Wuhan Now Sochi

Three Important Countries of the BRICS group - India, China and Russia

Prime Minister of the Republic of India, Mr. Narendra Modi is on an informal trip to Russia on an invitation of President of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir Putin (who is recently re-elected for the post till the next election scheduled in 2024), this is Prime Minister's second such informal arrangement after he went to Wuhan on an invitation of President of the People's Republic of China, Mr. Xi Jinping last month. Sochi and Wuhan both are at distance of more than 1000 kms from their country's respective capitals. So why two giant leaders of two superpowers will travel such massive distance to meet the Prime Minister of India?

Geographical Locations of Wuhan and Sochi

Geographical Location of Wuhan, China

Geographical Location of Sochi, Russia

As can be seen on map Sochi, Russia is situated on the banks of Black Sea. Black Sea is surrounded by Crimea (a part of Russia now after its annexation from Ukraine) & Ukraine in the North, European countries like Romania and Bulgaria in the West, Turkey in South and Georgia & Russia to the east. To this east coastline of Black Sea lies Sochi which is also is near to the border Russia-Georgia Border. 

Now, whereas Wuhan is concerned, it is not situated near any large water-body (Sea or Ocean) but is situated on the banks of  Yangtze River, it is the Third Longest River in world (after Nile in North-East Africa and Amazon in South America) and the Longest River in Asia, this river gives Wuhan an access to Yellow Sea and East China Sea through Inland Waterways system of China.

Importance of Wuhan and Sochi

Wuhan, apart from being historically important for people of China is also important for Communist Party of China as the ancient villa famous since Mao era where the Chairman would hold important party meetings and host special foreign guests.

Whereas Sochi, is considered as the city most suitable for hosting grand events such as 2014 Winter Olympics and Paralympics along with yearly hosting of Kinotavr (Largest National Film Festival of Russia)

Meeting Between Invincible Leaders 

Russia recently elected Mr. Vladimir Putin as its President for another 6 years, which means that he will be ruling Russia till the year 2024. Mr. Putin has ruled Russia between 1999-2008 and is Incumbent since 2012 now (that is more than 15 years of rule). Whereas, recently China also announced that Mr. Xi Jinping will continue to be the President of China for life, Mr. Jinping is ruling China since year 2013 succeeding Mr. Hu Jintao. In India, General Elections are scheduled next year and there are quite a low chances for Mr. Modi's anti-incumbency due to his pro-development and anti-corruption agenda, hence one can infer that he will continue to rule India at-least till the year 2024, he is a seasoned politician who ruled the Indian state of Gujarat as a Chief Minister for 13 years before becoming the Prime Minister of the Republic of India.  

          

 

Changes in Global Equations

The United States of America under the presidency of Mr. Donald Trump is changing global diplomatic equations as before he could gather all the praises for behavioral shift of North Korea towards U.S.A and South Korea, he attracted criticism for withdrawing from Iran's Nuclear Deal, calling Venezuelan elections illegal and shifting its Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Apart from this, a much debated and contested act "Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA)" was promulgated by U.S Congress and signed by President Donald Trump last year which aims to sanction Iran, North Korea and Russia, though Mr. Trump called this act "Seriously Flawed" as it imposes toughest sanctions on not only these three countries but also the countries trading with them, there were even dark clouds of sanctions presided over India for arms trading worth $12 billion with Russia in the recent past. Along with the sanctions business, The United States of America is indulged in the trade war with The People's Republic of China, where both the countries are imposing trade tariffs on each other. 

While it is a tough time for Indian Diplomacy, it is also an opportunity for it to reduce trade deficit with China but also mark its presence in West Asia, Central Europe and CIS countries. 

Wuhan Diplomacy

The informal summit on the banks of  Yangtze river enabled both countries to understand each other in a better manner. After the border rift between both the countries at the tri-junction of India-Bhutan-China near Doklam Plateau, there were high chances of War between both the countries but later through Mutual Understanding the situation of war was avoided. Capitalizing on the same understanding both India-China have agreed to setup a hotline between Army on the both sides to avoid such rifts and maintain a cordial relations on the front. 

Brahmaputra Connection

Brahmaputra is a lifeline of the North-East region of India, as it originates from Tibet region and enters India through Arunachal Pradesh and then falls into Bangladesh and finally meeting Bay of Bengal. After this rift last year, China stopped sharing data on Brahmaputra to India which makes it difficult to predict floods in the North-East region of the country, post Wuhan Summit China agreed to resume data sharing on Brahmaputra and Sutlej which will enable India to predict and control floods into its regions. 

Trade Deficit

As per the Statement issued by Mr. Suresh Prabhakar Prabhu, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Government of India, China is ready to do balance trade with India. This step will ultimately help India to reduce Trade Deficit with China which kept on piling since the year 2005, and we may see Trade Surplus with China in a near future. 

Afghanistan into picture

Both countries mutually agreed to develop infrastructure in Afghanistan for the betterment of region and routing out Terrorism and Extremism

These steps can be seen as initiation of creating multi-polar world, where both India and China could prosper together which will ultimately reduce hegemony of the United States of America into Asia. Further, there are not so friendly neighbours of China, but post 2014 many countries are shifting their approach towards India hence it is important for the former to maintain cordial relations with latter. Post Wuhan Summit, China is also keen to develop cordial relationship with its ancient rival and dear friend of India, Japan as Chinese Premier Mr. Li Keqiang visited Tokyo which is first such visit by any top leader of China to Japan, Mr. Keqiang has assured the Prime Minister of Japan, Mr. Shinzo Abe that President Xi Jinping will also visit Japan soon. 

So, where India is eyeing for regional peace while maintaining cordial relations with China, latter is also looking for a trusted partner in its not so friendly neighborhood. 

"The 21st Century will become the Century of Asia if China and India can build a stable and lasting relationship" 

                                                                                                         - China Daily

Sochi Diplomacy

"Moscow officials saying that New Delhi has moved one step closer to free trade with Russia led Eurasian Economic Union" 

                                                                                                          - Russia Today

What is Eurasian Economic Union

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU or EAEU or EAU) is a political and economic union of states located primarily in northern Eurasia. Countries involved in this Union are:

1. Russia (Moscow)
2. Armenia (Yerevan)
3. Belarus (Minsk)
4. Kazakhstan (Astana)
5. Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek)

                      

                               

This Union came into force since year 2015, which is free trade between the Eurasian countries and current Chairman of this union is President Vladimir Putin. In its First year of this Union that is 2015, when the President of Belarus, Mr. Alexander Lukashenko was the Chairman of this Union introduced Vietnam as a new member in Free Trade Zone following no such inductions in the couple of years thereafter, but earlier this year after assuming Chairmanship Mr. Vladimir Putin inducted China and Iran as the new members in the Free Trade Zone. Now after, Sochi Summit and pitch of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russia is thinking to induce India too as a member in the Free Trade Zone. Along with this free trade Union, India-Russia are indulged in talks of creating North-South Corridor connecting Russia to Iran. 

How will it benefit

According to this year's Economic Survey, India has registered its presence is Central Europe, West Asia and CIS much more than before. To capitalize it further, India got into Ashgabat Agreement where it has access to trade its goods to Turkmenistan via Iran and Afghanistan, getting to this Union and constructing North-South Corridor will further enhance the scope of Indian Goods as on one hand it will get access to Armenia and Belarus and on the other hand to Afghanistan-Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan through Iran (Chabahar Port). 

Time Tested Friend

Russia is India's time-tested friend and major defense exporter to India, and also developing India's largest operation Nuclear Reactor, Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant in Tirunelveli District of Tamil Nadu (southern Indian State). Apart from this, Russia is a huge contributor to Mr. Modi's ambitious Make In India. 

"New Delhi is alarmed that Russia, the other great power in the immediate vicinity, is drifting noticeably closer to China, with whom it has tighter fit, not just economically but geopolitically too, with both countries seeing themselves as a counterweight to US hegemony" 

                                                                                                                   - Russia Today

After a hostile approach of the United States of America towards Russia, latter shifted its momentum towards its neighbor China to not allow former's capitalization in Asia, while Russia also knows that India is a major partner of the US it knows that along with China it has to maintain cordial ties with India too. So, if India is eyeing Central Europe through Sochi Summit then Russia is trying to keep Asia away from U.S. hegemony.

JAI HIND !!